Who's winning the 7 key swing states, Harris or Trump? Inside the latest polls

Data journalist Nate Silver, formerly associated with the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, has released the latest version of his Silver Bulletin election forecast, which ranks the battleground states for the 2024 election. This is considered the most detailed ranking available so far.

According to the Silver Bulletin model, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are predicted to be within 3 points of each other in seven key states. Here’s a look at how these states are expected to rank in terms of closeness in 2024, along with their voting history from 2020:

1. Arizona (Trump +0.6% in 2024; Biden +0.3% in 2020)

2. Georgia (Trump +0.9% in 2024; Biden +0.2% in 2020)

3. Pennsylvania (Harris +1.0% in 2024; Biden +1.2% in 2020)

4. Nevada (Harris +1.1% in 2024; Biden +2.4% in 2020)

Key factors that could influence these states include voter turnout driven by local issues, such as immigration in Arizona, or the presence of candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot in states like Nevada, Michigan, and North Carolina. RFK Jr. could potentially sway the outcome by drawing votes away from Harris or Trump.

Some battleground states also have unique voter demographics, such as Michigan, with its large Arab American population. Shifts in their voting patterns, particularly in response to the Biden-Harris administration’s policies on Gaza, could make Michigan unpredictable.

While other states like Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Texas, Maine, New Mexico, and Ohio are also noteworthy, the core group of seven battleground states remains crucial. These states are expected to break for Trump or Harris first, making them decisive in the election outcome, with additional electoral votes from other states providing further advantage.